Exercises for Wed Sep 13

1. On Wed Sep 6, Emil Stoltenberg taught in loco Hjorti. He went through most of the appointed exercises, from Ch 2, and also Nils Exercise 12. In connection with these exercises he also discussed basic concepts from BDA3 Ch 2, including the *Jeffreys prior* and prediction.

2. See "Notes from Emil Stoltenberg", with details related to solutions of the Ch 2 exercises.

3. Emil also had time to explain that *just with tools and tricks from Ch 2* one can build good models and methods for election predictions. He will produce a short note on this, with Norwegian data, to be placed on the present course site.

4. Next week I will continue with Ch 2 themes, the use of Jeffreys, the prior and posterior predictive, etc.

5. Exercises for Wed Sep 13: First, 2.16 from the book. Then, extend Exercise 2.10, by computing posterior mean and standard deviation for N, and a 90% credibility interval, for the case of having observed not merely y1 = 203, but also y2 = 157 and y3 = 222. Also, redo these details *with your own prior* for N. Finally, print out the Exam Project for 2015, and do as much as you can from Exercise 1. (There are details there we haven't yet covered, regarding "approximate normal distribution", etc., and you're allowed to look in Ch 4. But for now we're content to do "as much as we naturally can" from this exercise.)