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Mon Sep 22 & Wed Sep 24: 

Exam 2015, #4 uniform with a prior
Exam project 2010. #1 Myshkin kabal 

More Jeffreys and vip-Jeffreys: 7.26, 7.29, 7.30.

Mon Sep 15 & Wed Sep 17: Story #17 cigarettes (Bayesian part); normal-normal and gamma-normal things 7.19, 7.21; then Jeffreys 7.25, 7.26, and soon enough vip-Jeffreys exercises 7.29.

You should also do this, a simplified version of the cigarettes problem: generate n = 100 datapoints from y = \beta x + \eps, for some true \beta_0, with the x_i and \eps_i standard normal. The prior for \beta is flat on [0,\infty) (i.e. we do not tolerate \beta negative). Code up an MCMC doing this, and check how \beta given data looks, for true \beta_0 clearly positive; for \beta_0 close to zero; and for \beta_0 a bit negative. 

We'll also do more of earlier exam, exam projects, oblig exercises soon, and the next to work through here are: 
   Exam 2017...

Sep. 15, 2025 11:17 AM

Wed Sep 10: Exam 2021, #2, #4, Exam 2017, #4. 

Nils is at a Human Rights in Adacemics conference on that day, but you should absolutely meet up: Kushagri Tandon will take you through these three earlier exam exercises (and I'll make sure that *something* from these will turn up, one way or another, for the December 2025 conference). 

Next couple of weeks: Story #17 (cigarettes & cancer); rest of 7.19; hack you way through 7.21 (normal-normal is nice and clear with known sigma, more messy but doable with unknown sigma); 7.23, then 7.24 Jeffreys (with examples) and after that again 7.29 Nils-Emil vip-Jeffreys. We'll also fill up with more from earlier exam, earlier Oblig, earlier exam projects.

https://dnva.no/detskjer/2025/05/symposium-menneskerettigheter-og-akademisk-frihet

Sep. 8, 2025 10:17 PM

In connection with Story #85, an MCMC take on Magic Squares, I've uploaded com5d to the site. Use it, play with it, constuct magic squares of sizes 4 x 4, 5 x 5, 6 x 6, perhaps higher. This is achieved via the MCMC for f(x) = \exp[-\lambda Q(x)] / constant, with positive \lambda. You may also play with *negative \lambda*, to encourage outcomes as far as possible from magic-ness: sums of rows, columns, diagonals, far away from the magic number (34 for 4 x 4, 111 for 6 x 6, etc.). The exercise is then to find the Bayesian MAP, maximising Q(x) as score: the worst ever squares. 

I think it's pretty hard to do this by pure math -- so run chains and see what happens. My current guesses, for 4 x 4 and 6 x 6 (after tne minutes of playnig) are 114 and 540. If you can beat these numbers, tell me, and I'll give you tyve kroner (les Rudolf Nilsen).

Sep. 4, 2025 11:16 AM