1. For Mon 2 March, ¡­

1. For Mon 2 March, we finish Exercise 3.1 (including the Beta envelope model), and also the following exercise: Download and organise the "Adelskalenderen men 2006" speedskating data set from the book's website, creating data vectors y1, y2, y3, y4, the personal best times, in seconds, for the best n = 250 speedskaters of the world, over the four classic distances 500 m, 1000 m, 5,000 m, 10,000 m. The task is to predict y2 from information about the skater's personal bests on the other three distances, i.e. y1, y3, y4. Go through the seven linear regression models 1, 3, 4, 13, 14, 34, 134, where e.g. 14 means the model that uses y1 and y4 as covariates. Compute AIC and BIC scores. Also produce a convenient table, summarising the most important aspects of each of the seven models. What is your best model, for the present purpose?

2. We have started Ch 3, which I plan to finish by Mon 2 Mars, including a brief going through of Section 4.2. The DIC is in the cursory curriculum part, but Section 4.2 is included in the main curriculum part. The week after that we start on Ch 5.

3. There was an error in "com2b", which is now replaced by com2c, models for Roman Era Egyptian life-times. I have also uploaded com4c, for the eight logistic regression models used for the 189 babies and their mothers.