For Mon 5 May, I ¡­

For Mon 5 May, I intend to sum up Ch 6 and to go through the final technical part of our curriculum, from Sections 7.1-7.4, also about "the Quiet Scandal of Statistics".

For the exercise part, work through the following, related to the "Onset of menarche" data set from the book's webpage (see Example 6.2). The candidate models we shall consider are logistic regression models of polynomial order 1, 2, 3, 4, i.e. from the narrow model's p(x) = H(beta0 + beta1 z) to the wide's model p(x) = H(beta0 + beta1 z + beta2 z^2 + beta3 z^3 + beta4 z^4), with H the logistic transform. Also, we transform from x to z = x - 13.0 for numerical stability, as in the book. (a) Compute AIC and BIC scores. (b) Carry out FIC analysis for focus parameter mu = p(x0), with x0 = 11 yr and x0 = 15 yr. (c) Carry out AFIC analysis for mu = p(x0), with x0 taking on 25 values uniformly spread from 11 yr 0 mnths to 13 yr 0 mnths, and with each such x0 having the same importance. (d) Then perform FIC analysis for mu = 0.95 quantile of the onset distribution for menarche.